Duck! and Gather

Biography + 2 Books + Enneagram = Obama

Posted on: November 3, 2008

Blog-o-rama for me today. Here’s the next one: I was thinking about my Obama prediction of December 25, 2006, and how it’s going to come true tomorrow. In December of 2006, few in the world would have predicted what is going to be realized tomorrow.

How come I did? How did I ‘know’ this? Why am I so ‘smart’?

Well, it turns out the reason why I’m such a proficient prognosticator is a rather banal one. Call me the puny Wizard of Oz. Here is what is behind my curtain:

In short, my reading interest is quite broad, my reading style is critical in nature, and my math brain reminds me that truth is universal. That’s it right there.

Specifically, it doesn’t matter what wacky thing I’m reading. If my spider sense suspects that I’m reading about some true phenomenon in one domain, then that phenomenon must be consistent with ‘truths’ that I have already stumbled across in other domains. And when the ‘other domains’ are wide and numerous, that makes for a quite challenging steeplechase for any new idea to jump through. But if some idea does manage to jump all the way through, then my confidence for its truth is high.

That’s what happened with my Obama prediction.

That is, in making this Obama prediction on Christmas day of 2006, I relied on truths I had “mined” from at least four different sources:

These four sources are rather diverse. That is, many people who subscribe to one of the four often treat at least another of the four as invalid.

In fact, I relied upon even more sources that just these four. For example, one additional source was my own belief that, as of 2006, America was beyond race as a divisive politcal issue. I realize that many would demur with this contention. But read my “proof” in the previous link. It feels elegant to me.

Anyway, in December of 2006, I put together all of the nuggets of truth (as I see them) from the foregoing sources, and looked at the long list of characters who, at the time, were said to be considering a run for the White House. Having asked the question (“Who will win?”), the answer seemed obvious. That is, Obama was the only one who satisfied all of the criteria that emerged from these diverse sources.

You want to predict the future? Get reading. And don’t stop reading. Read wide, and read deep.

And while you’re doing all of this reading, create and amend your own models for what seems likely true, and what seems likely not.

There’s your lesson for today. You’re welcome. 🙂

6 Responses to "Biography + 2 Books + Enneagram = Obama"

thanks peter. i drew the same conclusion by copying off your paper without doing any of the work.


This is my take.

I’m Canadian. And after tonites Obama win, it’s the first time I don’t feel embarrassed to have American as neighbours. i.e. “Please don’t confuse me with being American. I’m Canadian”.

I don’t think I’m the only Canadian that feels this way. In fact, I think it may be an international sentiment.

Tonite I feel proud of having American neighbours. Not because of the fact that Obama is president-elect. It’s because of what the American people did tonite: they banded together to send a clear message. “We want change”. “We want healthy change”. “We want a more socialist country (i.e. people that help each other)”.

I was quite impressed with Obama’s speech. Hell, he probably doesn’t even write it. But it was quite humble. And it did express the sentiment of a nation that desires to travel the road of health, functionality and unity.

Regardless of how Obama implements policies and regardless if he’s good on his word, the fact that American’s are waking up to the fact that if things don’t change – if they don’t participate in this change – then America will crash and burn. Tonite’s vote is symbolic of the opposite to crashing and burning. It states that instead of crashing and burning, America wants to heal.

Desire is the first step toward healing.

I am very optimistic for America.

Thanks for the wonderful comment Kathy. America will still crash and burn, but what you saw tonight promises that this nation will rise from those ashes a much better place. The economic and geo-political forces that brought this nation to the brink of collapse can’t be reversed with just one wonderful night. But still,this wonderful night is a powerful sign that these coming dark days will be overcome.

With one reservation … When Obama and his family stepped up on the stage tonight and faced the crowd, my very first thought was: “Please God, don’t let this fellow be shot even before he gives his speech.” My hope is that Obama lasts at least two years in office before the first assassination attempt comes. Because even if that attempt is “successful” at that point, Obama will become a martyr to the whole nation, driving us forward even with more energy.

But if, instead, such an attempt succeeds in the near future, my family needs to think about moving to the Greek islands. I doubt that this nation could survive such a tragedy so soon. This is a such a precious, fragile time in this wonderful nation. I’ve got my fingers crossed.


That’s exactly what I thought last night: “Please God, don’t let this fellow be shot even before he gives his speech.”

I got to thinking, hell, they’re doing this speech in some park. How can they do tight security there? Surely there must be lots of trees around.

I think there is going to be a very quick transition into the White House just so that security will be better.

Anyway, no – change won’t happen overnight. But like disease and some people, when they’re diagnosed with a terminal illness, they take the bull by the horns, and miraculously, some don’t crash and burn, but actually avoid the crash and burn and thrive. I guess we are defining “crash and burn” differently.

Well said.

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for the money has gone too far

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