Duck! and Gather

Archive for December 15th, 2007

Three years and one month ago, I made the following prediction:

The North Sea Brent crude oil spot price will hit $100/barrel; the Kitco 24 hour spot gold (bid) price will hit $1000/ounce.

At the time I made that prediction (12/4/04), Brent crude was trading at around $40/barrel; Kitco gold at around $450/ounce.

Fast forwarding to the past month, we’ve seen Brent crude clear $95/barrel; Kitco gold, over $840/ounce.

With almost a year left to run on this prediction, I’d say it’s looking “more likely than not” that I’ll be collecting that ounce of gold from my PhD friend.

Hey, I’m just sayin’.

Three years and one month ago I made the following prediction:

The Democratic Party will either go the way of the Whigs, or undergo a profound metamorphosis whereby the current leadership of the party (DNC, the Clintons, U.S. Senators, etc.) is replaced with anti-Corporate leadership.

As of today, only three candidates stand the chance of winning the Democratic nomination for President. A year ago, I noted that one of the three — Barack Obama — seems a tad anti-corporate, albeit politely so.

Then in August of this year, a second of the three — John Edwards — came out as unambiguously anti-corporate:

Real change starts with being honest — the system in Washington is rigged and our government is broken. It’s rigged by greedy corporate powers to protect corporate profits. … For them, more of the same means more money and more power. They’ll do anything they can to keep things just the way they are — not for the country, but for themselves. … The choice for our party could not be more clear. We cannot replace a group of corporate Republicans with a group of corporate Democrats, just swapping the Washington insiders of one party for the Washington insiders of the other. … It’s time to end the game. It’s time to tell the big corporations and the lobbyists who have been running things for too long that their time is over.

As for the third of the three — Hillary Clinton — her standing in the polls has been in a free fall of late.

So one year from the expiry of my prediction, I’d say it’s looking like a “strong likely”. That’s quite an upgrade from last years’ “let’s wait and see” rating.

Over the past few days, I got busy again with my Personality and the Brain work. On Thursday, I noticed that some self-appointed Wikipedia policeman had deleted links to any info on the Enneagram and brain research, including the link to my work. After two years of sitting on this project, that incident gave me the shot in the arm I needed. So I whipped up a quick paper that summarizes the book. Then I sent that paper to the key researchers cited in the book. In the paper, I identify two remaining research questions that are needed to confirm my hypothesis. It will be interesting to see if I get any response from them. Here are my latest updates on the book page:

12/15/07: The Wikipedia Police

After two years of a Wikipedia link to this page, a Wikipedia “policeman” has taken upon himself/herself to delete any mention of brain research on the Enneagram. For your entertainment, here is the discussion thread between this person and myself: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Enneagram_of_Personality#Research_Section

12/15/07: Eric Lombrozo’s Paper

If you find my paper and/or book at all interesting, you’ll definitely be interested in the paper Prefrontal Cortex Dissociation from Amygdala and Personality Types by Eric Lombrozo. Check it out.

12/13/07: Paper

After two years, I finally got around to writing up a short paper summarizing the main points of the book. Basically, I started with the abstract of the book, and fleshed that text out into a (hopefully) readable paper. Happy reading.


for the money has gone too far

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