Archive for November 2005
Using our 0 … 5 point scale, I’d rate this one a 0. This one is sort of a zero-sum prediction. Either somebody ran an open source campaign and won, or no one did so. The latter seems true today. Still, there does seem to be a small but perceptible buzz about this notion. But I’m not so sure that this buzz about an “open source campaign” matches my idea. A core aspect of my idea concerns money — specially, the absence of it. The idea is that someone will run and win a political campaign, having intentionally raised no money. If you’ve seen any sign of this, please comment. (Please comment in any event.) In the meantime, we’ll just score this prediction as one of the wacky ones.
A year ago this time, I posted the eight predictions on this site. These predictions are for the four year period running from January 2005, to January 2009. Well, after a year, how are these predictions faring? It’s time to grade them. Let’s start with the first: demise of the Democratic Party. If we score the progress of each prediction on a scale from 0 (no evidence at all) to 5 (prediction fulfilled), I’d score this one as a 1 at this point. Today, there’s scant evidence that the Democratic Party will demise. On the contrary, some even say that the results of the elections last week evidence a resurgence of that party, rather than a demise. But given how severely Red and Mr. Bush have been trounced these past few months, one might have expected an equally significant counter-rise by Blue. But I don’t think that’s what we’ve seen. While I think that the nation is truly becoming aversive to Red, I don’t register an analogous passionate attachment to Blue. So that’s why I score this prediction a 1, rather than a 0. In either case, this prediction seems rather weak today. But these are still early days …
As you’ve probably noticed, I’ve re-organized this site. There’s now five main areas to this site: (1) This blog; (2) The Podcast; (3) PeoplesWiki; (4) Predictions; and (5) Analysis. As you can see, these five are accessible at the top of the “Duck! and Gather” menu to the left. As I mentioned, I’m using WordPress for this blog. For the PeoplesWiki, I’m using DokuWiki. (I had wanted to use MediaWiki but after pulling out what is left of my sparse hair I stumbled across the PHP via CGI versus PHP as Apache module glitch.) One problem (upside?) of DokuWiki is that it doesn’t seem to use a database. We’ll see how that plays out. In any event, this blog is probably “mission control” of the whole site. The Podcast is useful in that it fills in much detail that I have been too lazy to write up in Analysis (plus you get to hear the moronic sounding voice behind these words). When I get the energy I’ll try to at least send links from “TBDs” in Analysis to the relevant podcasts that addressed them. But what I’m excited about working on now is the PeoplesWiki. This part of the site is about you and I and all of us getting to stand on equal footing, and do something more constructive than just sharing interesting conversation. Not that that isn’t useful. It’s just that it would be nice to come away with something in addition to the warm feelings we may get from realizing we are, to one degree on another, on the same page. I realize that this “PeoplesWiki” idea may seem obtuse to you right now. Certainly, that page right now doesn’t help clarify things. When I get the chance, I’ll draft up the initial, ground rules page. Of course, since it’s an open wiki, you could beat me to it and take your crack at it. That’s the beauty of wikis. One lazy guy can’t stop the train.